Q&A

Pope Francis’s passing on April 21, 2025, won’t significantly impact financial markets. Historical papal transitions show no market disruptions, and economic fundamentals like policy and earnings matter more. Rome may see a temporary tourism boost, but global markets will remain unaffected. Speculative claims on X about Bitcoin or gold spikes lack evidence. 

Some might note activity in prediction markets like Polymarket, where bets on papal succession have hit $420,000 by February 2025. These reflect public interest but are niche and irrelevant to broader financial markets, aligning with a Republican skepticism of overhyped trends.

From a politically conservative perspective, the relationship between Treasury bonds and tariffs is often viewed through the lens of economic nationalism, fiscal responsibility, and the desire to protect domestic industries while maintaining a strong dollar and manageable federal debt. Conservatives generally prioritize policies that promote American economic sovereignty and reduce reliance on foreign goods, which tariffs are often intended to achieve. However, Treasury bonds, as a tool for financing government debt, can complicate this dynamic. Below is an analysis of how Treasury bonds might affect tariffs from a conservative viewpoint, incorporating how former President Donald Trump has addressed these issues based on recent development

• Tariffs as a Tool for Economic Protectionism:
  • Conservatives, including Trump, often support tariffs to protect American industries, encourage domestic manufacturing, and address trade imbalances with countries like China. Tariffs are seen as a way to level the playing field for U.S. workers and businesses by making imported goods more expensive, thus incentivizing the purchase of domestically produced products. Trump has emphasized this approach, arguing that tariffs will bring back manufacturing jobs and reduce the trade deficit.
  • The revenue generated from tariffs can theoretically be used to offset federal deficits, aligning with conservative goals of fiscal responsibility. For instance, Trump has claimed that tariffs could raise significant revenue to fund tax cuts and other priorities, potentially reducing the need to issue new Treasury bonds to finance government spending. In early April 2025, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all countries, with higher rates on nations with large trade deficits, effective April 5 and April 9, 2025, respectively, to address what he described as unfair trade practices.
• Treasury Bonds and Federal Debt Concerns:
  • Conservatives are typically wary of excessive government borrowing, as it increases the national debt and future interest obligations. Trump has acknowledged the importance of maintaining low borrowing costs, frequently commenting on Treasury yields as a key economic indicator. However, his tariff policies have raised concerns about increasing the federal deficit if they lead to economic slowdowns or higher consumer prices, necessitating more bond issuance.
  • Reports indicate that Trump’s initial tariff announcements in early April 2025 led to a sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, from below 4% to around 4.5%, as investors sold off bonds amid fears of inflation and trade disruptions. This prompted Trump to pause most of his “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days on April 9, 2025, except for those on China, which he escalated to 125%. Trump explained this pivot by noting that “people were jumping a little bit out of line” and “getting yippy,” suggesting he was responding to bond market turmoil. Conservatives might view this as a pragmatic adjustment to avoid fiscal instability, though some might criticize it as a retreat from his America First agenda.
• Impact on Bond Markets and Investor Confidence:
  • A conservative perspective, aligned with Trump’s rhetoric, emphasizes maintaining investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, which are considered a safe-haven asset globally. Trump has expressed awareness of bond market dynamics, stating, “The bond market is very tricky, I was watching it,” during a press interaction on April 9, 2025. His decision to pause tariffs was influenced by warnings from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other advisors about a potential bond market crisis, as foreign investors, including possibly China and Japan, were reportedly selling Treasuries amid trade tensions.
  • Conservatives might argue that Trump’s tariff strategy is designed to strengthen the U.S. economy, thereby sustaining demand for Treasury bonds in the long term. However, they’d likely support his temporary pause to prevent a sell-off that could increase borrowing costs, raise mortgage rates, and undermine the dollar’s reserve currency status. Trump’s team has framed this pause as a strategic move to gain “maximum negotiating leverage” in trade talks, suggesting he’s balancing market stability with his protectionist goals.
• Balancing Economic Growth and Stability:
  • Trump and his conservative supporters advocate for pro-growth policies, with tariffs framed as a way to stimulate domestic production and job creation. Trump has argued that his tariffs will “re-shore” manufacturing and drive economic growth, as outlined in a White House fact sheet on April 2, 2025. However, the bond market’s reaction—yields spiking due to fears of inflation and recession—forced a recalibration. Conservatives might see this as evidence that Trump is responsive to economic signals, adjusting policies to avoid derailing growth.
  • If tariffs reduce economic growth by disrupting supply chains or raising costs, conservatives might worry about larger deficits and increased Treasury bond issuance. Trump’s pause on tariffs for most countries (except China) suggests he’s trying to mitigate these risks while still pressuring trading partners to negotiate better deals. His administration has emphasized that he’ll personally negotiate “bespoke” trade agreements, indicating a hands-on approach to balancing growth and stability.
• Skepticism of Globalist Narratives:
  • Trump and many conservatives are skeptical of establishment warnings about tariffs disrupting financial markets, including Treasury bonds. Trump initially dismissed bond market concerns, posting on Truth Social on April 9, 2025, that “Everything is going to work out well” and urging people to “BE COOL!” Some conservatives might view warnings about bond sell-offs as exaggerated by globalist elites who prioritize free trade over American interests. However, Trump’s eventual pause suggests he’s not entirely dismissive of market realities, aligning with conservative pragmatism when fiscal stability is at stake.
  • Posts on X reflect this sentiment, with some users arguing that Trump’s tariffs are “economic poison” causing uncertainty, while others defend his approach as a bold move to prioritize U.S. interests, even if it rattles markets temporarily. Trump’s rhetoric, such as calling the U.S. a “big beautiful store” that nations will pay to access, reinforces this view that tariffs are a negotiating tool to strengthen America’s economic position without permanently harming bond markets.

Critical Perspective: While Trump’s conservative supporters may applaud his tariff policies for promoting American industry, the bond market’s reaction in April 2025 highlights risks. The rapid rise in Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year yields hitting 4.592% on April 11, 2025) suggests investors feared inflation and trade wars, which could increase borrowing costs and deficits—outcomes conservatives typically oppose. Historical precedents, like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, show that broad tariffs can deepen economic downturns, though Trump’s team argues his targeted approach avoids such pitfalls. His pause on tariffs indicates a willingness to adjust when markets signal danger, but escalating tariffs on China (to 145% by April 11, 2025) risks further retaliation, potentially reducing foreign demand for Treasuries. Conservatives might see this as a bold stand, but it could strain fiscal discipline if bond yields remain elevated.

How Trump Is Addressing These Issues:

• Tariff Implementation and Pause: Trump rolled out a 10% baseline tariff and higher rates on countries with large trade deficits in early April 2025, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce trade imbalances. After bond yields spiked and markets panicked, he paused most tariffs (except China’s) for 90 days on April 9, 2025, to stabilize markets and negotiate trade deals.
• Monitoring Bond Markets: Trump has acknowledged watching the bond market closely, with advisors like Scott Bessent briefing him on yield spikes and their implications for borrowing costs. His pivot was partly driven by fears of a bond market crisis, showing responsiveness to fiscal risks.
• Negotiating Trade Deals: Trump is personally engaging in trade negotiations, aiming for “bespoke” agreements to lower tariffs selectively, which he claims will maintain economic leverage without long-term market disruption.
• Escalating Pressure on China: Despite the pause, Trump raised China’s tariffs to 145%, framing it as a response to unfair trade practices. This aligns with conservative goals but risks further bond sell-offs if China retaliates by reducing Treasury holdings.

In summary, from a conservative perspective, Trump is addressing the interplay between Treasury bonds and tariffs by pursuing protectionist policies to strengthen the U.S. economy while adjusting his approach when bond market signals threaten fiscal stability. His tariff pause reflects a balance between economic nationalism and pragmatism, though his aggressive stance on China keeps risks alive. Conservatives might applaud his focus on American interests but urge careful calibration to avoid inflating deficits or bond yields. If you’d like more details on specific actions or conservative reactions, let me know!

If you’re under 50 and thinking about investing in mutual funds, you’re in a great spot. Why? Because time is your best friend when it comes to growing wealth. Mutual funds offer an accessible, diversified way to invest for long-term goals—like retirement, a dream home, or building generational wealth. But with thousands of funds out there, how do you pick the right one?

Let’s break down what to look for in a mutual fund when you still have time on your side.

🔄 1. Growth Over Income

When you're under 50, you likely don’t need your investments to generate income right now. You want growth—investments that appreciate in value over time. That means focusing on:

• Equity Funds (stocks): These tend to offer higher long-term returns than bonds or money markets, though they can be more volatile.
• Growth or Aggressive Growth Funds: These funds invest in companies expected to grow faster than average, which can mean bigger returns over time (with a little more risk).

🧪 2. Risk Tolerance + Time Horizon = Winning Strategy

Since retirement is still a decade or more away, you can afford to take calculated risks. That means choosing funds that might fluctuate in the short term but trend upward over the long term.

✔️ Look for funds with a higher stock allocation
✔️ Consider sector-specific or international funds for added diversification
✔️ Avoid being too conservative too early—you’ve got time to recover from market dips

💸 3. Low Fees = More Money for You

This one’s big. Over decades, fees can eat away at your returns like termites in a wooden house. Always check a fund’s:

• Expense Ratio: This is the annual fee you pay to be in the fund. Look for funds with an expense ratio under 1%, ideally under 0.5%.
• Load Fees: Some mutual funds charge a fee when you buy or sell shares. Opt for no-load funds when possible.

Remember, a difference of just 0.5% in fees can cost you tens of thousands of dollars over a lifetime.

🏆 4. Proven Performance (But Don’t Chase Winners)

Yes, past performance doesn't guarantee future results—but a fund that has outperformed its peers consistently over the last 5–10 years can still tell you something.
What to look for:

• Consistent long-term returns (vs. market averages and similar funds)
• Experienced fund managers
• A clear, understandable strategy (not just the "hot" pick of the year)

🌍 5. Diversification

When you’re young, you can afford to be bold—but not reckless. A solid mutual fund spreads your money across dozens or even hundreds of stocks or bonds. That way, if one investment flops, your whole portfolio doesn’t go with it.

Even better:

• Combine different types of mutual funds (domestic, international, small-cap, large-cap)
• Consider a target-date fund if you want a set-it-and-forget-it option that automatically adjusts over time

💥 Bonus Tip: Automate Your Investments

One of the best tools for investors under 50? Dollar-cost averaging. Set up automatic contributions to your mutual fund every month. This smooths out the highs and lows of the market, and builds wealth consistently over time.

🎯 The Bottom Line

If you’re under 50, your mutual fund picks should prioritize growth, low fees, smart diversification, and long-term performance. The earlier you start, the more time your money has to compound—and the fewer regrets you’ll have later.

Time is on your side. Make it count.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often touted as the smarter, greener, more cost-effective alternative to traditional gas-powered cars. But while the environmental benefits tend to get the spotlight, many drivers are left wondering: Do EVs actually save you money in the long run—or is it all just hype?

The answer? It depends. But in many cases, especially if you’re smart about how and where you drive, the savings can be real—and substantial.

Fuel Savings: Where EVs Start to Shine

One of the biggest money-savers with electric vehicles is fuel—or rather, the lack of it. Charging an EV at home typically costs around 3 to 5 cents per mile, while gasoline-powered cars can cost 12 to 20+ cents per mile, depending on fuel prices and your car’s efficiency.
For example, if you drive 15,000 miles a year:

• A gas car might cost $2,000+ per year in fuel.
• An EV might cost $500–$700 per year in electricity.

That’s over $1,000 a year in savings, and even more if gas prices spike. If you have access to low-cost home charging (especially overnight or solar-powered), the gap widens even further.

Lower Maintenance Costs: Fewer Moving Parts, Fewer Problems

Another area where EVs flex their savings muscles is maintenance. EVs don’t need:

• Oil changes
• Transmission repairs
• Exhaust system work
• Spark plugs or timing belts

In fact, EVs have far fewer moving parts than internal combustion engines, which means fewer things can break or wear out. Over the life of the vehicle, EV drivers often save 30–60% on maintenance costs, according to multiple consumer and industry studies.

Tax Credits and Incentives: Uncle Sam (and Some States) Want to Help

To sweeten the deal, the federal government currently offers up to $7,500 in tax credits for qualifying new EV purchases, depending on the model and your income. Some used EVs may also qualify for up to $4,000 in credits under the Inflation Reduction Act.

States like California, Colorado, and New Jersey throw in additional incentives—everything from rebates and tax breaks to free HOV lane access and discounted tolls. Your local utility might even offer rebates for installing a home charger or give you a cheaper rate for nighttime charging.

The Upfront Cost: A Hurdle That’s Getting Lower

One of the biggest obstacles to EV adoption is the initial purchase price. Historically, EVs have been more expensive than comparable gas cars—but that’s changing fast.

• Models like the Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, Nissan Leaf, and Hyundai Kona EV are now priced competitively, especially after applying federal and state incentives.
• Used EVs are now flooding the market, offering a lower-cost entry point for budget-conscious drivers.

Still, for some buyers, the sticker shock—especially for higher-end models—can be a hurdle.

Charging Costs & Setup: Something to Consider

If you plan to charge at home, you’ll likely want to install a Level 2 charger, which can cost anywhere from $500 to $2,000, depending on your electrical setup. But that’s often a one-time investment, and rebates from utilities can significantly lower the cost.
On the flip side, if you rely heavily on public charging stations, especially fast chargers, your costs may creep up—and you might not save quite as much compared to gas.

Battery Lifespan: The Long-Term Question

EV batteries are built to last, and most come with 8-year/100,000-mile warranties. That said, if you keep the car beyond the warranty period, replacing a battery can cost several thousand dollars.
That risk is part of the long-term cost equation, but battery technology is improving rapidly, and replacement costs have been trending down.

Bottom Line: Will You Actually Save Money?

Here’s the quick math:

• If you drive a lot, have access to home charging, and live in a state with solid incentives → You’ll likely save thousands over the life of the vehicle.
• If you drive infrequently, pay high electricity rates, or can’t install a charger → Your savings may be smaller or take longer to realize.

In many real-world scenarios, EVs not only pay for themselves over time—they also offer a smoother, quieter ride and the satisfaction of reducing your carbon footprint. So yes, electric cars really can save you money—as long as you charge smart and shop wisely.

For retirees living on fixed incomes—especially those with a conservative bent—safety, stability, and tax efficiency are non-negotiable. Municipal bonds, those sleepy debt instruments issued by state and local governments, have long been a go-to for steady returns and tax-free income. But with Trump’s tariffs shaking markets, interest rates in flux, and municipal budgets under scrutiny, are “munis” still a good bet in April 2025? From a conservative perspective, the answer is a cautious “yes”—if you pick wisely. Here’s why they’re worth a look, what’s changed, and how retirees can navigate the landscape.

The Timeless Appeal: Tax Breaks and Stability

Conservatives love munis for a reason: they’re a rare government product that doesn’t fleece you. Interest is exempt from federal taxes—and often state taxes if you buy local—making them gold for retirees in high-tax brackets. A $100,000 investment in a 3% muni yields $3,000 annually, tax-free, versus a taxable bond where Uncle Sam skims 20-30% off the top. For fixed-income folks, that’s real money. Plus, munis historically default less than corporate bonds—Moody’s pegs the 10-year default rate at 0.1% for investment-grade munis versus 2.3% for corporates. It’s not sexy, but it’s reliable, and conservatives prize reliability over flash.

Rates and Yields: A Decent Deal, For Now

Interest rates sit at 4.5-5% after the Fed’s tightening, pushing muni yields up too. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index yields 3.2% as of March 2025—modest, but tax-adjusted, it’s equivalent to a 4.5% taxable return for a 30% bracket retiree. Compare that to 10-year Treasuries at 4.2% (fully taxable) or corporate bonds at 5% (riskier). X posts from bond traders note munis are “holding firm” despite tariff noise—demand from retirees and institutions keeps them steady. Conservatives nod: it’s not a windfall, but it beats inflation (hovering at 2.5%) and preserves capital. Lock in now, and you’ve got a cushion if rates dip later.

Tariffs and Budget Stress: The Fly in the Ointment

Trump’s tariffs—10% on all imports, 25% on Canada and Mexico—aren’t hitting munis directly, but they’re rippling. Higher import costs could squeeze state and local revenues—think sales taxes or trade-dependent jobs—especially in border states like Michigan or New York. S&P Global warns of “fiscal strain” if trade wars drag; California’s budget office already projects a $5 billion shortfall tied to port slowdowns. Weak revenue means riskier bonds, especially for lower-rated issuers (BBB or below). Conservatives don’t panic, but we don’t ignore red flags either. Stick to AAA or AA-rated general obligation bonds—backed by broad taxing power—or essential-service revenue bonds (water, utilities). Illinois or Detroit? Pass. Texas or Florida? Safer bets.

Inflation and Rates: A Watchful Eye

Inflation’s cooled to 2.5%, but tariffs could nudge it back up—X chatter from economists floats 3-4% by year-end if retaliation escalates. Higher inflation erodes fixed income, and if the Fed hikes rates again, bond prices drop. A 1% rate jump could shave 7-8% off a 10-year muni’s value, per Vanguard. Conservatives play defense: shorter maturities (5-7 years) limit that risk while still yielding 2.8-3%. Laddering—spreading investments across maturities—keeps cash flowing and hedges rate swings. It’s not about timing the market; it’s about outlasting it.

The Conservative Case: Yes, But Be Picky

For fixed-income retirees, munis still check key boxes: tax-free cash, low default risk, and a buffer against stock volatility. A $200,000 portfolio yielding 3% nets $6,000 yearly—enough to cover basics without touching principal. But conservatives don’t buy blind. Skip speculative projects (stadiums, tourism) and focus on rock-solid issuers—think Virginia or Utah, not cash-strapped blue states. Data backs this: AAA munis have a 0.02% default rate over 20 years, per Fitch. Avoid bond funds—fees eat returns—and buy individual issues through a broker like Fidelity or Schwab (commissions under $50).

The Verdict: A Qualified Green Light

Are munis a good investment now? Yes—if you’re selective. They’re not a home run (yields won’t make you rich), but they’re a singles-and-doubles play for retirees who value sleep over stress. Tariffs add uncertainty, so prioritize quality over quantity—stick to high-grade, short-to-mid-term bonds from fiscally sound states. Conservatives don’t chase yield at the expense of safety; we build wealth that lasts. Munis fit that mold in 2025—just don’t bet the farm without doing your homework. Your retirement deserves nothing less.