As investors, we know America’s economy is strongest when innovation, free enterprise, and Main Street drive growth. But in today’s environment, noise from Washington and Wall Street can cloud the real picture. That’s why I’ve developed our own tool: the U.S. Economy Strength Score (USESS™).
This score isn’t spin. It’s a clear, numbers-driven reading of how America’s economy is positioned heading into the next quarter. Every week, we’ll track it, update it, and let it guide where the smart money should be watching.
How the USESS Works
The USESS is built from seven core markets, each scored from 1 (very weak) to 100 (very strong). These scores are then weighted by importance and combined into one composite number. Think of it as our dashboard for America’s economic health.
- Treasury Market (20%) – The clearest forward signal for growth and inflation.
- Housing & Construction (15%) – Housing leads the economy, and it’s the most rate-sensitive sector.
- Small-Caps (Russell 2000) (15%) – Main Street business activity, not just the big multinationals.
- Financials & Credit (15%) – Banks and lending conditions determine whether capital is flowing.
- Commodities (10%) – Oil, copper, and agriculture prices show real-world demand.
- Consumer Discretionary (10%) – If households spend beyond the basics, confidence is alive.
- Business Startups (15%) – New business applications and venture activity—our best signal of future growth and entrepreneurial optimism.
By including startups, the USESS captures something Washington often ignores: America’s growth engine is still built by entrepreneurs willing to take risks and start new ventures.
This Week’s USESS™
Here’s the scorecard for the first week of September 2025:
Category | Score | Weight | Weighted |
Treasury Market | 80 | 20% | 16.0 |
Housing & Construction | 35 | 15% | 5.3 |
Small-Caps (Russell 2000) | 30 | 15% | 4.5 |
Financials & Credit | 55 | 15% | 8.3 |
Commodities | 60 | 10% | 6.0 |
Consumer Discretionary | 40 | 10% | 4.0 |
Business Startups | 45 | 15% | 6.8 |
Composite Score | 50.9 |
What It Means
This week’s USESS™ comes in at 50.9, firmly in the Caution Zone.
- Treasuries are strong, signaling the bond market sees stability ahead.
- Housing and small-caps remain weak, confirming pressure on Main Street.
- Financials and commodities are holding steady, but not pointing to acceleration.
- Startups are showing life, though they’re far from booming.
Taken together, the economy is grinding forward, but not breaking out. The signal is clear: opportunity exists, but not without risk.
Investor Takeaway
The lesson is simple: stick with America’s strengths, but demand discipline.
- Focus on U.S.-based businesses with strong balance sheets.
- Watch the startup space for green shoots of innovation—it’s where the next wave of growth will come from.
- Keep hedges in place; the Fed still risks overplaying its hand.
The USESS will be our weekly compass. While Washington debates and Wall Street speculates, we’ll stay grounded in the actual strength of America’s economy. That’s how investors protect capital and seize opportunity.
