Monday: The "Sound Money" Monday
- Action: Monitor the ISM Manufacturing Index.
- Nuance: With Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, markets are pricing in a "Sound Money" era. His history as an inflation hawk is driving a massive rotation out of gold and silver (which have plunged nearly 30% from recent highs) and back into the U.S. Dollar.
“The ‘Warsh Effect’ is the sound of the easy-money door slamming shut. For years, the market bet on an ultra-dove who would tolerate a weaker dollar; instead, they got a central banker who views a stable currency as the ultimate pillar of American competitiveness.”
— Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist, Pepperstone
Tuesday: The Energy & Deregulation Trade
- Action: Track movement on the SPEED Act and PERMIT Act.
- Nuance: These bills aim to overhaul NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act), specifically limiting environmental reviews to "immediate project impacts" rather than speculative climate effects. This is a green light for traditional energy infrastructure.
Wednesday: Tech Earnings & "American AI"
- Action: Analyze Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) earnings.
- Nuance: Look past the top-line revenue. The "Republican trade" here is Domestic CapEx. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, companies are incentivized to build data centers on U.S. soil. High domestic spending signals these giants are aligned with the administration's "re-shoring" mandates.
Thursday: The "DOGE" Effect & Efficiency
- Action: Review the House's progress on Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) recommendations.
- Nuance: The "hidden" trade here is Defense & Aerospace. While DOGE targets bureaucratic waste, the GOP budget prioritizes munitions and space modernization. Leaner government doesn't mean smaller defense; it means more efficient lethality.
Friday: The "Affordability" Labor Report
- Action: January Nonfarm Payrolls (Forecast: 67,000–68,000 jobs).
- Nuance: Pay attention to the Labor Participation Rate. The GOP’s "Cost of Living" narrative relies on getting people off the sidelines. If participation rises alongside the 4.4% unemployment target, it validates the "affordability" platform heading into the 2026 midterms.
