Patriots, as a Republican investor with my money on the line in small-caps, energy, and industrials, I'm gearing up for a wild week ahead (September 22–28). Last week's Fed rate cut was a win for calling out Powell's over-tight grip, but now we're staring down a gauntlet of data—durable goods, PMIs, Core PCE—that'll either back Trump's soft-landing swagger or expose the tariff squeeze.
My portfolio's built for "America First" resilience, and with earnings from Micron and Costco plus whispers of tariff exemptions and Supreme Court tariff power plays, there's opportunity in the chaos. Here's my day-by-day take, straight from the gut, with X chatter and inside scoops from the GOP trenches. Let's roll.
Monday, September 22: Durable Goods Sets the Tone
Durable goods orders hit at 8:30 AM ET, with markets eyeing a 2.5% MoM jump for August. But tariff supply chain snags could drag revisions lower. No major earnings, so expect flat futures after last week's witching madness. The ISM Manufacturing PMI sub-index will hint at factory strength—above 50 keeps my industrial bets alive.
My GOP Take: This is our test of Trump's protectionism. A strong print means U.S. makers are stealing China's thunder, but weakness screams tariff pain. X buzz hints at a White House leak on tariff exemptions for Japan and EU metals like nickel—could spark miners if true.
My move: Hold XLI (industrials ETF) for a 1–2% pop on a beat; pivot to utilities if it flops.
Tuesday, September 23: Housing and Confidence Data Drop
S&P Case-Shiller home prices at 9 AM, expected +3.8% YoY for July—affordability's tight, but an upside surprise would signal red-state real estate heat. Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 10 AM, consensus 102—tariffs might dent it with a $1,300/household hit, but last week's retail strength could lift spirits. Light earnings, but regional banks could move.
My GOP Take: Confidence holding firm proves our base's spending grit, but farmers on X are fuming over export losses from Brazil/India retaliations—20% bankruptcy spike in Iowa. Inside scoop: Treasury Sec. Bessent is dodging "tariff tax" heat, but leaks suggest a push against court challenges—SCOTUS hearing in November could lock in Trump's tariff powers.
Opportunity: Homebuilders (D.R. Horton) if prices hold; lumber tariffs boost U.S. sawmills.
Wednesday, September 24: PMIs and Powell's Next Move
S&P Global Flash PMIs at 9:45 AM: Manufacturing consensus 48.5, Services 52.5—a services beat could offset factory tariff pain. New home sales at 10 AM, eyed at 680K annualized. Powell speaks at 1 PM ET—expect tariff inflation warnings, with Core PCE projected at 3.1% for 2025. Micron earnings after close—AI chips could shine despite China probes.
My GOP Take: PMIs tell the tale: sub-48 manufacturing means tariffs hurt; strong services keep our consumer engine humming. Powell's speech will echo Trump's Fed feud—new pick Miran’s pushing harder cuts. X chatter flags a mid-week Trump tweetstorm on EU "unfair" deals, potentially juicing defense stocks.
My play: Micron calls—semiconductor tariffs could drive reshoring, boosting MU 5–10% on a beat.
Thursday, September 25: GDP and Claims Reality Check
Q3 GDP advance at 8:30 AM, nowcast 3.3%—tariffs could shave 0.5 pp, signaling export drag. Jobless claims same time, consensus 235K—last week's 231K drop was gold, but YoY revisions (-911K) scream caution. Earnings: Costco pre-open, AutoZone after—retail vs. tariff cost tests.
My GOP Take: GDP above 3%? Trump's growth brag holds. Claims under 230K keep labor "strong" for rallies. But India's PM Modi boycott threats risk pharma/chemical tariffs. Inside: White House leaks whisper Japan pharma exemptions, a $30B carve-out.
Opportunity: Costco if it guides up; XLY ETF could soar.
Friday, September 26: Core PCE and Sentiment Seal the Week
Core PCE at 8:30 AM, expected +2.7% YoY—sticky at 2.9% last, tariffs could push 3.1%. U. Mich. Sentiment final at 10 AM, consensus 70. FedEx earnings pre-open—logistics gauge for trade flows.
My GOP Take: PCE under 2.8% green-lights more cuts, juicing our banks. Over? Powell points at tariffs, buying Trump time. X posts from allies like South Korea's prez hint at "1997 crisis" blowback—Carney's Palestine nod could spark tariff fire. Inside: SCOTUS fast-tracking Trump's tariff authority—win there, and we're set.
My hedge: Gold (GLD) if PCE heats; $4K/oz looms.
Weekend Watch: APEC and SCOTUS on Deck
No trades, but APEC prep looms—Trump–Xi talks could ease China tensions. Tariff tracker: Exemptions on 45 categories for deal-makers started September 8.
The Patriot Playbook: Stay Sharp
Expect swings: S&P could hit 6,700 if PCE cools, but tariff noise caps gains. For us Republicans: Small-caps (IWM) and energy (XLE) shine in protectionism—GOPO ETF +41% YTD proves it.
Risks? Retaliation dings GDP; households feel the tariff pinch.
Upside? TCJA extensions could juice corporates 10–15%.
My Final Word
Tariffs hurt short-term but build unbreakable supply chains. Powell's cuts open doors; Trump's fights deliver wins. Stay domestic, trade the headlines—America's markets reward the bold.
What's your move, patriots?
